June: +3.2% Against Nifty 500's +1.5%, and a Shrinking Alpha
Second half of the catch-up pair (May's update is here too, and the cadence resumes properly from July). June was the grind month, and grind months are where the honest numbers live.
The portfolio closed +3.20% against Nifty 500's +1.49%. Alpha of +1.71 points, the smallest of the quarter by a wide margin. April gave +11.5, May gave +5.8, June gave less than 2. That is not a complaint. That is what alpha decay after a rebound looks like, and it is exactly the scenario the April update said to expect once the easy trade was over.
How June Played Out
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Month return | +3.20% |
| Nifty 500 return | +1.49% |
| Alpha vs Nifty 500 | +1.71 pp |
| Trading days | 21 |
| Up days / Down days | 11 / 10 |
| Best day | Jun 12 (+2.81%) |
| Worst day | Jun 1 (-2.94%) |
| Max drawdown | -3.64% |
Eleven up days, ten down days. A coin-flip month, saved by the size of the wins on the good days rather than their frequency. The whole month's return came from one ten-day stretch.
The Shape of the Month
June had three distinct acts:
- A bad open. The single worst day of the month was its first session, -2.94%, and the portfolio spent the first week underwater. Starting a month down ~3% is a useful test of whether you actually trust your rules or just enjoyed them while they were winning.
- The engine room. June 12 to June 22 did all the work: a run that took the portfolio from roughly flat to up more than 6% at the peak, while the index crawled.
- A give-back into the close. From the June 22 peak, four straight red sessions handed back -3.64% before a small recovery on the final day. The month ended well off its highs.
Holdings
The first change to the book since the April rebalance: one exit this month, triggered by the rules. A name broke its trend condition and the system took it out, no debate, no averaging down, no waiting for it to come back. The rest of the book carried through unchanged.
Worth pausing on what did not happen: after fifteen weeks of holding a winning basket, the temptation is to start taking profits on the best names or cutting the laggards early. The system did neither. It made exactly one move all month, the one the rules demanded.
What Did Not Work
- The alpha is thinning, and the trend of the trend matters. +11.5, +5.8, +1.7 across three months is a clear decay curve. Either momentum broadens out again, or the coming months are where this system earns its keep by protecting rather than compounding.
- Half the days were red. The smooth April experience is long gone. June demanded sitting through chop with no signal about whether the next leg was up or down.
- Month-end momentum was negative. The last week's give-back means July inherits a portfolio coming off its highs, not one pressing them.
The Quarter, Since It Closed One
June also closed the first quarter of FY27, so the running tally deserves a line:
| Q1 FY27 (Apr-Jun) | Portfolio | Nifty 500 | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | +33.05% | +12.02% | +21.03 pp |
A +33% quarter is a good quarter by any standard, and it is also not the standard. The right way to read it: one exceptional month, one strong month, one ordinary month. The system's job from here is not to repeat April. It is to not give the quarter back.
What's Next
Same rules into July. If the alpha decay continues, expect these updates to get more boring, and boring updates, published anyway, are the entire point of this series. The July update lands on schedule at the start of August.
Personal trading account. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in securities are subject to market risks. I do not currently hold a SEBI Research Analyst registration; this is a personal portfolio update, not a research recommendation.